Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wyoming @ N Dakota St WYO @ NDSU

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

2-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Fargodome
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

N DAKOTA STNDSU

5-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
@
Aaron Bickerton
KEY GAME

Aaron Bickerton

#39 | Punter
Player
Bart Edmiston None-None
Aaron Bickerton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WYOMING
21%
📊
N DAKOTA ST
79%
▲ Edge: +7.10% (WYO)
WYOMING 14% Book Odds: +625
N DAKOTA ST 91% Book Odds: -950
Book Implied: 13.80% / 90.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 44.5 64%
Under 44.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
WYOMING
Book Spread
+17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Wyoming)
WyomingWYO (+17.5) 0 N Dakota StNDSU (-17.5)
Wyoming Cowboys (+17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wyoming Cover

84.1%

N Dakota St Cover

15.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WYO +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

WYO By 1-6 points

7.9%

WYO By 7-13 points

4.7%

NDSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

NDSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
WYOMING
Book Implied: 13.50
32.5
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
15
WYOMING
Book Implied: 13.50
32
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI N Dakota St Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim N Dakota St Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wyoming (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
C
Sim N Dakota St (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 WYO @ NDSU 0 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +12.9% more
North Dakota State: 369.6 vs Wyoming: 327.2
Turnovers (L5) +83.8% more
Wyoming: 1.4 vs North Dakota State: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.0% more
Wyoming: 152.2 vs North Dakota State: 140.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WYO Score 18.5 0
NDSU Score 32.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 18.5 23.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 140.0 / 152.2 220.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 369.6 / 327.2 407.0 / 162.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1000 / -1786 → +625 / -950 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +17.5 / -17.5 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 44.5 ↓
70%TICKETS30%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WYO
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
NDSU Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WYO Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
NDSU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WYO
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.4
NDSU
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
WYO
NDSU
WYO
ML
100% 6-0
62% 5-3
89% 8-1
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 3-3
38% 3-5
89% 8-1
62% 5-3
TTL
33% 2-4
12% 1-7
11% 1-8
12% 1-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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