Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Samford @ UAB SAM @ UAB

SAMFORD

SAMFORDSAM

1-4  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

3-2  |  Home

33
Key Game
Will Thorley
KEY GAME

Will Thorley

#59 | Punter
@
Oliver Straw
KEY GAME

Oliver Straw

#46 | Punter
Player
Will Thorley None-None
Oliver Straw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAMFORD
10%
📊
UAB
90%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (SAM)
SAMFORD 6% Book Odds: +1700
UAB 98% Book Odds: -4500
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 54.5 55%
Under 54.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+23.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
+31
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Samford)
SamfordSAM (+31) 0 UABUAB (-31)
Samford Bulldogs (+31) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Samford Cover

95.0%

UAB Cover

5.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SAM +23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

SAM By 1-6 points

2.9%

SAM By 7-13 points

1.3%

UAB By 1-6 points

6.5%

UAB By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
16.8
SAMFORD
Book Implied: 11.80
39.8
UAB
Book Implied: 42.80
Simulated Score
13
SAMFORD
Book Implied: 11.80
34
UAB
Book Implied: 42.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UAB Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim UAB Win
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Samford (+31) Win
Proj Spread: +23.0
A
Sim Samford (+31) Win
Proj Spread: +21.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.6
C
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 SAM @ UAB 14 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +146.6% more
UAB: 147.5 vs Samford: 59.8
First Downs (L5) +85.6% more
UAB: 17.6 vs Samford: 9.5
Total Yards (L5) +79.4% more
UAB: 320.7 vs Samford: 178.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
UAB: 0.4 vs Samford: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 16.8 14
UAB Score 39.8 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 9.5 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 147.5 / 59.8 248.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.47 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 320.7 / 178.7 400.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.6 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2200 / -8000 → +1700 / -4500 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +30.5 / -30.5 → +31 / -31 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
--
UAB Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
--
UAB Advantage
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
--
UAB
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
SAM
UAB
SAM
ML
71% 5-2
100% 2-0
100% 7-0
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 3-3-1
100% 2-0
83% 5-1-1
100% 2-0
TTL
43% 3-4
50% 1-1
57% 4-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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