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CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

2-3  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

3-2  |  Home

39
Key Game
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
@
Quandarius Keyes
KEY GAME

Quandarius Keyes

#5 | Defensive Back
Player
Angus Davies None-None
Quandarius Keyes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
66%
📊
UNLV
34%
▲ Edge: +14.90% (CAL)
CALIFORNIA 51% Book Odds: -105
UNLV 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 51.20% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.9 (Under)
Over 51.5 42%
Under 51.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (California)
CaliforniaCAL (+1.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (-1.5)
California Golden Bears (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

69.1%

UNLV Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CAL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CAL By 1-6 points

16.5%

CAL By 7-13 points

19.3%

UNLV By 1-6 points

12.9%

UNLV By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25
20.8
UNLV
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
24
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 25
34
UNLV
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI California Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim UNLV Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI California (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim UNLV (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.6
B
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 CAL @ UNLV 31 - 39
Dec 18, 2024 CAL @ UNLV 13 - 24
Sep 10, 2022 UNLV @ CAL 14 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
California: 1.6 vs UNLV: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +77.9% more
UNLV: 175.7 vs California: 98.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
UNLV: 0.5 vs California: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 27.8 31
UNLV Score 20.8 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 19.8 18.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 175.7 / 98.8 173.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 403.0 / 374.3 350.0 / 464.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115 → -105 / -115
22%TICKETS78%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
49%TICKETS51%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 51.5 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
UNLV Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
UNLV Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.7
UNLV
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
CAL
UNLV
CAL
ML
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
62% 5-3
78% 7-2
ATS
25% 2-6
33% 3-6
75% 6-2
56% 5-4
TTL
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
38% 3-5
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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