Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Syracuse @ UConn SYR @ CONN

SYRACUSE

SYRACUSESYR

2-2  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCONN

UCONNCONN

2-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jimmy Gregg
KEY GAME

Jimmy Gregg

#41 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Tommy Warner

#49 | Punter
Player
Jimmy Gregg None-None
Tommy Warner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SYRACUSE
62%
📊
UCONN
38%
▲ Edge: +6.10% (CONN)
SYRACUSE 73% Book Odds: -265
UCONN 32% Book Odds: +215
Book Implied: 72.60% / 31.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 51.5 55%
Under 51.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
UCONN
Book Spread
+6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UConn)
SyracuseSYR (-6.5) 0 UConnCONN (+6.5)
UConn Huskies (+6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Syracuse Cover

34.7%

UConn Cover

65.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

SYR By 1-6 points

16.8%

SYR By 7-13 points

18.8%

CONN By 1-6 points

13.8%

CONN By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
29
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 29
23.5
UCONN
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
22
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 29
34
UCONN
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Syracuse Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim UConn Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UConn (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
D
Sim UConn (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.5
C
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 SYR @ CONN 42 - 41
Sep 6, 2025 CONN @ SYR 20 - 27
Nov 23, 2024 CONN @ SYR 24 - 31
Sep 10, 2022 SYR @ CONN 48 - 14
Sep 22, 2018 CONN @ SYR 21 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.0% more
Syracuse: 1.8 vs UConn: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +14.6% more
Syracuse: 23.1 vs UConn: 19.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.9% more
UConn: 173.3 vs Syracuse: 152.2
Total Yards (L5) +10.0% more
UConn: 401.7 vs Syracuse: 365.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SYR Score 29.0 42
CONN Score 23.5 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 23.1 28.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 173.3 / 152.2 181.0 / 174.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.59
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 401.7 / 365.3 499.0 / 509.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -265 / +215 → -265 / +215
94%TICKETS6%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -6.5 / +6.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 51.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +4.5
CONN Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +4.5
CONN Advantage
4-1-1 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
CONN
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
SYR
CONN
SYR
ML
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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