Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ South Alabama ULM @ USA

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

0-5  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

3-2  |  Home

52
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
29%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
71%
▲ Edge: +9.60% (ULM)
UL MONROE 19% Book Odds: +425
SOUTH ALABAMA 85% Book Odds: -575
Book Implied: 19% / 85.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 44%
Under 56.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.6
UL MONROE
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (UL Monroe)
UL MonroeULM (+13.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (-13.5)
UL Monroe Warhawks (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

75.4%

South Alabama Cover

24.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ULM +9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

ULM By 1-6 points

11.0%

ULM By 7-13 points

7.6%

USA By 1-6 points

15.5%

USA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 21.50
31.8
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
17
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 21.50
32
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Alabama Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim South Alabama Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UL Monroe (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.6
B
Sim South Alabama (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ULM @ USA 35 - 52
Nov 15, 2025 USA @ ULM 26 - 14
Oct 26, 2024 ULM @ USA 17 - 46
Oct 7, 2023 USA @ ULM 55 - 7
Oct 15, 2022 ULM @ USA 34 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.4% more
South Alabama: 181.0 vs UL Monroe: 131.7
First Downs (L5) +17.8% more
South Alabama: 21.8 vs UL Monroe: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.0% more
South Alabama: 406.1 vs UL Monroe: 359.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
South Alabama: 0.4 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 22.2 35
USA Score 31.8 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 18.5 20.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 181.0 / 131.7 249.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 406.1 / 359.6 570.0 / 442.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +437 / -639 → +425 / -575 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56 → 56.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
ULM
USA
ULM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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