Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Marshall @ James Madison MRSH @ JMU

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

3-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:45 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

5-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Cooper Heimbach None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
14%
📊
JAMES MADISON
86%
MARSHALL 15% Book Odds: +550
JAMES MADISON 89% Book Odds: -800
Book Implied: 15.40% / 88.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 49%
Under 55.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.6
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
-15.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (James Madison)
MarshallMRSH (+15.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (-15.5)
James Madison Dukes (-15.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

9.2%

James Madison Cover

90.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -18.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

MRSH By 1-6 points

5.0%

MRSH By 7-13 points

2.6%

JMU By 1-6 points

9.6%

JMU By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 20
36.8
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 35.50
Simulated Score
25
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 20
32
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 35.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison Win
86% Win Prob
A
Sim James Madison Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI James Madison (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.6
C
Sim Marshall (+15.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MRSH @ JMU 17 - 45
Nov 8, 2025 JMU @ MRSH 35 - 23
Nov 30, 2024 MRSH @ JMU 35 - 33
Oct 19, 2023 JMU @ MRSH 20 - 9
Oct 22, 2022 MRSH @ JMU 26 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.8% more
James Madison: 199.8 vs Marshall: 168.2
Turnovers (L5) +42.1% more
Marshall: 1.5 vs James Madison: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 18.2 17
JMU Score 36.8 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 22.8 25.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 199.8 / 168.2 310.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 436.9 / 436.3 573.0 / 444.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +550 / -800 → +550 / -800
1%TICKETS99%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +15.5 / -15.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 55.5
22%TICKETS78%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
MRSH
JMU
MRSH
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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