Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Old Dominion @ Georgia St ODU @ GAST

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

1-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

4-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
@
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Ian Brandt None-None
Samer Layous None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLD DOMINION
77%
📊
GEORGIA ST
23%
▲ Edge: +30.70% (ODU)
OLD DOMINION 47% Book Odds: +114
GEORGIA ST 57% Book Odds: -135
Book Implied: 46.70% / 57.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.9 (Under)
Over 51.5 48%
Under 51.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.5 points (Old Dominion)
Old DominionODU (+2.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (-2.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Old Dominion Cover

82.3%

Georgia St Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ODU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

ODU By 1-6 points

13.5%

ODU By 7-13 points

19.3%

GAST By 1-6 points

8.6%

GAST By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31.8
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 24.50
18.8
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
25
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 24.50
32
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Georgia St Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Sim Georgia St (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.6
D
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ODU @ GAST 10 - 42
Nov 29, 2025 GAST @ ODU 10 - 27
Oct 12, 2024 ODU @ GAST 21 - 14
Nov 25, 2023 GAST @ ODU 24 - 25
Oct 29, 2022 ODU @ GAST 17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.4% more
Georgia State: 183.2 vs Old Dominion: 126.0
Total Yards (L5) +39.1% more
Georgia State: 426.0 vs Old Dominion: 306.2
First Downs (L5) +36.2% more
Georgia State: 21.4 vs Old Dominion: 15.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Georgia State: 0.5 vs Old Dominion: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 31.8 10
GAST Score 18.8 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 15.7 23.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 183.2 / 126.0 187.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 426.0 / 306.2 470.0 / 146.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -113 / -103 → +114 / -135 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 51.5 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
ODU
GAST
ODU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Pat Narduzzi Tells AP Voters to 'Wake Their A** Up' After Pitt's…
awfulannouncing 5 days, 18 hours ago
Ryan Clark Reveals ESPN Exit Call: 'They Are Going to Let You Go'
awfulannouncing 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Gabe Jacas Impresses in NFL Debut, Highlights Illinois' Talent P…
headtopics 3 weeks, 4 days ago
Rose Bowl Debuts $30M Field Club as UCLA Eyes Football Renaissan…
headtopics 3 weeks, 6 days ago