Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Army @ Louisiana Tech ARMY @ LT

ARMY

ARMYARMY

2-2  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

2-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Lloyd Benson III
KEY GAME

Lloyd Benson III

#23 | Wide Receiver
@
Lexington Matthews
KEY GAME

Lexington Matthews

#29 | Punter
Player
Lloyd Benson III None-None
Lexington Matthews None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
43%
📊
LOUISIANA TECH
57%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (LT)
ARMY 52% Book Odds: -110
LOUISIANA TECH 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 52.40% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.6
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +13.1 (Over)
Over 45.5 73%
Under 45.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Louisiana Tech)
ArmyARMY (+1.5) 0 Louisiana TechLT (-1.5)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Army Cover

41.5%

Louisiana Tech Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

ARMY By 1-6 points

15.3%

ARMY By 7-13 points

12.9%

LT By 1-6 points

17.0%

LT By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
ARMY
Book Implied: 22
30.8
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
26
ARMY
Book Implied: 22
25
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisiana Tech Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Army Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Louisiana Tech (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Army (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.6
A
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ARMY @ LT 29 - 31
Dec 28, 2024 LT @ ARMY 6 - 27
Sep 28, 2013 ARMY @ LT 35 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +146.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 1.9 vs Army: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.1% more
Army: 301.4 vs Louisiana Tech: 159.4
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
Army: 0.6 vs Louisiana Tech: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +9.8% more
Army: 21.9 vs Louisiana Tech: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score 27.8 29
LT Score 30.8 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 21.9 20.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 159.4 / 301.4 244.0 / 270.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 354.6 / 378.6 503.0 / 421.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -175 / +145 → -110 / -110 ↑
88%TICKETS12%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 45.5 ↑
75%TICKETS25%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +2.4
LT Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +2.4
LT Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +7.9
LT
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
ARMY
LT
ARMY
ML
100% 8-0
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
88% 7-1
ATS
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
TTL
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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