Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ UMass EMU @ MASS

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

3-3  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

4-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
@
Edward Phillipson
KEY GAME

Edward Phillipson

#43 | Punter
Player
Daniel Hull None-None
Edward Phillipson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
50%
📊
UMASS
50%
▲ Edge: +14.80% (EMU)
E MICHIGAN 35% Book Odds: +185
UMASS 69% Book Odds: -225
Book Implied: 35.10% / 69.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 48.5 52%
Under 48.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Eastern Michigan)
E MichiganEMU (+5.5) 0 UMassMASS (-5.5)
Eastern Michigan Eagles (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

52.8%

UMass Cover

47.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around EMU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

EMU By 1-6 points

16.1%

EMU By 7-13 points

14.6%

MASS By 1-6 points

16.7%

MASS By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24.2
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 21.50
25.2
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
19
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 21.50
25
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim UMass Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI E Michigan (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim UMass (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.4
D
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 EMU @ MASS 38 - 14
Aug 31, 2024 EMU @ MASS 28 - 14
Sep 16, 2023 MASS @ EMU 17 - 19
Oct 1, 2022 MASS @ EMU 13 - 20
Sep 18, 2021 EMU @ MASS 42 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +59.2% more
Massachusetts: 180.6 vs Eastern Michigan: 113.4
Turnovers (L5) +61.4% more
Eastern Michigan: 1.4 vs Massachusetts: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +17.9% more
Eastern Michigan: 19.0 vs Massachusetts: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 24.2 38
MASS Score 25.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 19.0 18.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 180.6 / 113.4 106.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.79
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 326.1 / 319.6 316.0 / 411.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148 → +185 / -225 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
59%TICKETS41%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
MASS Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
MASS Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.4
MASS
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
EMU
MASS
EMU
ML
25% 1-3
57% 4-3
33% 2-4
43% 3-4
ATS
25% 1-3
57% 4-3
50% 3-3
43% 3-4
TTL
50% 2-2
71% 5-2
33% 2-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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