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WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

3-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Broadview Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

2-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Oliver Hautanen
KEY GAME

Oliver Hautanen

#31 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Oliver Hautanen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
62%
📊
BUFFALO
38%
▲ Edge: +17.70% (BUFF)
W MICHIGAN 84% Book Odds: -535
BUFFALO 20% Book Odds: +400
Book Implied: 84.30% / 20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.5
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 45.5 57%
Under 45.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Buffalo)
W MichiganWMU (-13.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (+13.5)
Buffalo Bulls (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

34.7%

Buffalo Cover

65.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUFF +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

WMU By 1-6 points

16.8%

WMU By 7-13 points

18.8%

BUFF By 1-6 points

13.8%

BUFF By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 29.50
21.5
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 16
Simulated Score
27
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 29.50
20
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 16
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI W Michigan Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim W Michigan Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
B
Sim Buffalo (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.5
C
Sim o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 WMU @ BUFF 20 - 17
Oct 19, 2024 WMU @ BUFF 48 - 41
Oct 2, 2021 WMU @ BUFF 24 - 17
Oct 7, 2017 WMU @ BUFF 71 - 68
Nov 19, 2016 BUFF @ WMU 0 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +170.0% more
Buffalo: 2.4 vs Western Michigan: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +16.1% more
Buffalo: 19.4 vs Western Michigan: 16.7
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Buffalo: 336.9 vs Western Michigan: 308.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 27.0 20
BUFF Score 21.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 16.7 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 169.5 / 175.8 135.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 336.9 / 308.9 305.0 / 327.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -847 / +575 → -535 / +400 ↑
97%TICKETS3%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -16.5 / +16.5 → -13.5 / +13.5 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 45.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +2.6
BUFF
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +2.6
BUFF Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -5.6
BUFF
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
WMU
BUFF
WMU
ML
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
ATS
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
TTL
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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