Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ Ball State TOL @ BALL

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

4-1  |  Road

39
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 2:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

1-4  |  Home

24
Key Game
Markus Meincke
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
@
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
Player
Markus Meincke None-None
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
74%
📊
BALL STATE
26%
▲ Edge: +14.60% (BALL)
TOLEDO 93% Book Odds: -1351
BALL STATE 11% Book Odds: +800
Book Implied: 93.10% / 11.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 52.5 56%
Under 52.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
+21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Ball State)
ToledoTOL (-21) 0 Ball StateBALL (+21)
Ball State Cardinals (+21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

21.6%

Ball State Cover

78.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BALL +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

TOL By 1-6 points

14.7%

TOL By 7-13 points

19.7%

BALL By 1-6 points

10.0%

BALL By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
32.5
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 36.80
21.5
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 15.80
Simulated Score
30
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 36.80
25
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 15.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Toledo Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ball State (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Sim Ball State (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 TOL @ BALL 39 - 24
Nov 22, 2025 BALL @ TOL 9 - 38
Oct 14, 2023 TOL @ BALL 13 - 6
Nov 8, 2022 BALL @ TOL 21 - 28
Sep 25, 2021 TOL @ BALL 22 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +42.2% more
Toledo: 469.8 vs Ball State: 271.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.4% more
Toledo: 173.2 vs Ball State: 113.7
First Downs (L5) +27.3% more
Toledo: 21.3 vs Ball State: 15.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Toledo: 0.5 vs Ball State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 32.5 39
BALL Score 21.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 21.3 18.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 113.7 / 173.2 132.0 / 352.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 271.3 / 469.8 370.0 / 553.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -1351 / +800 → -1351 / +800
98%TICKETS2%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -17.5 / +17.5 → -21 / +21 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 52.5 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: -0.4
BALL
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -17.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.5 ATS +/-: -0.4
BALL Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -17.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +10.5
BALL
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +6.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
TOL
BALL
TOL
ML
100% 6-0
67% 4-2
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
ATS
67% 4-2
40% 2-3-1
50% 3-3
40% 2-3-1
TTL
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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