Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ C Michigan AKR @ CMU

AKRON

AKRONAKR

1-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

3-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
32%
📊
C MICHIGAN
68%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (AKR)
AKRON 31% Book Odds: +225
C MICHIGAN 74% Book Odds: -278
Book Implied: 30.80% / 73.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 60%
Under 46.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Central Michigan)
AkronAKR (+7) 0 C MichiganCMU (-7)
Central Michigan Chippewas (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

28.4%

C Michigan Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

AKR By 1-6 points

12.2%

AKR By 7-13 points

8.8%

CMU By 1-6 points

16.1%

CMU By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22
AKRON
Book Implied: 19.80
30
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
28
AKRON
Book Implied: 19.80
22
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Akron Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI C Michigan (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Akron (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 AKR @ CMU 17 - 41
Oct 4, 2025 CMU @ AKR 22 - 28
Oct 14, 2023 AKR @ CMU 10 - 17
Oct 15, 2022 CMU @ AKR 28 - 21
Sep 14, 2019 AKR @ CMU 24 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Central Michigan: 147.3 vs Akron: 124.3
First Downs (L5) +31.4% more
Akron: 20.6 vs Central Michigan: 14.2
Total Yards (L5) +24.9% more
Akron: 335.1 vs Central Michigan: 251.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 22.0 17
CMU Score 30.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.2 / 20.6 20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 147.3 / 124.3 332.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 251.6 / 335.1 481.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 2.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -225 → +225 / -278 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +7 / -7 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 46.5
63%TICKETS37%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
CMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
AKR
CMU
AKR
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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