Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTEP @ New Mexico UTEP @ UNM

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 4:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

4-1  |  Home

61
Key Game
Brady Braun
KEY GAME

Brady Braun

#47 | Punter
@
Michael Kern
KEY GAME

Michael Kern

#19 | Punter
Player
Brady Braun None-None
Michael Kern None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
11%
📊
NEW MEXICO
89%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (UTEP)
UTEP 8% Book Odds: +1200
NEW MEXICO 96% Book Odds: -2400
Book Implied: 7.70% / 96%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 (Over)
Over 47.5 73%
Under 47.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+22.0
UTEP
Book Spread
+23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (UTEP)
UTEPUTEP (+23.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (-23.5)
UTEP Miners (+23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

94.2%

New Mexico Cover

5.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP +22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

UTEP By 1-6 points

3.3%

UTEP By 7-13 points

1.5%

UNM By 1-6 points

7.2%

UNM By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18
UTEP
Book Implied: 12
40
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 35.50
Simulated Score
19
UTEP
Book Implied: 12
31
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 35.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim New Mexico Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +22.0
D
Sim UTEP (+23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UTEP @ UNM 7 - 61
Sep 17, 2022 UTEP @ UNM 10 - 27
Sep 25, 2021 UNM @ UTEP 13 - 20
Aug 30, 2014 UTEP @ UNM 31 - 24
Sep 7, 2013 UNM @ UTEP 42 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +66.9% more
New Mexico: 191.7 vs UTEP: 114.9
Total Yards (L5) +29.1% more
New Mexico: 346.1 vs UTEP: 268.0
First Downs (L5) +18.4% more
New Mexico: 18.6 vs UTEP: 15.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
New Mexico: 0.4 vs UTEP: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 18.0 7
UNM Score 40.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 15.7 24.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 191.7 / 114.9 230.0 / 169.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.58 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 346.1 / 268.0 492.0 / 270.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.4 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1000 / -1786 → +1200 / -2400 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +21 / -21 → +23.5 / -23.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 47.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
UTEP
UNM
UTEP
ML
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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