Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Temple @ South Florida TEM @ USF

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

2-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

4-1  |  Home

13
Key Game
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
@
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
Player
Dante Atton None-None
Luke Goater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEMPLE
16%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
84%
▲ Edge: +15.80% (USF)
TEMPLE 36% Book Odds: +180
SOUTH FLORIDA 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 35.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 50.5 53%
Under 50.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (South Florida)
TempleTEM (+5.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (-5.5)
South Florida Bulls (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Temple Cover

10.6%

South Florida Cover

89.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -17.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

TEM By 1-6 points

5.6%

TEM By 7-13 points

3.0%

USF By 1-6 points

10.4%

USF By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
17
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 22.50
34.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
18
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 22.50
33
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Sim South Florida Loss
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.5
A
Sim South Florida (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
D
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 TEM @ USF 17 - 13
Nov 11, 2023 TEM @ USF 23 - 27
Nov 5, 2022 USF @ TEM 28 - 54
Oct 23, 2021 TEM @ USF 14 - 34
Oct 17, 2020 USF @ TEM 37 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +73.0% more
South Florida: 1.3 vs Temple: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +24.4% more
South Florida: 21.9 vs Temple: 17.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
South Florida: 0.5 vs Temple: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Temple: 202.4 vs South Florida: 183.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEM Score 17.0 17
USF Score 34.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 17.6 17.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 183.4 / 202.4 114.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 375.3 / 383.8 319.0 / 274.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -225 → +180 / -218 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEM Advantage
4-0-1 (100.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TEM
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.9
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
TEM
USF
TEM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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