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UTSA

UTSAUTSA

4-1  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
First Community Stadium
View Odds Details →

RICE

RICERICE

1-4  |  Home

14
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Charlie Durkin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
69%
📊
RICE
31%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (RICE)
UTSA 83% Book Odds: -500
RICE 21% Book Odds: +380
Book Implied: 83.30% / 20.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 38%
Under 56.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
RICE
Book Spread
+12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Rice)
UTSAUTSA (-12.5) 0 RiceRICE (+12.5)
Rice Owls (+12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

28.4%

Rice Cover

71.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RICE +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

UTSA By 1-6 points

16.1%

UTSA By 7-13 points

19.5%

RICE By 1-6 points

12.2%

RICE By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
UTSA
Book Implied: 34.50
21.5
RICE
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
29
UTSA
Book Implied: 34.50
25
RICE
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UTSA Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim UTSA Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rice (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Sim Rice (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UTSA @ RICE 16 - 14
Oct 11, 2025 RICE @ UTSA 13 - 61
Oct 12, 2024 UTSA @ RICE 27 - 29
Nov 11, 2023 RICE @ UTSA 14 - 34
Nov 19, 2022 UTSA @ RICE 41 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +12.4% more
UTSA: 411.2 vs Rice: 360.4
Turnovers (L5) +120.0% more
Rice: 1.6 vs UTSA: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.6% more
Rice: 263.8 vs UTSA: 174.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 29.5 16
RICE Score 21.5 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 20.5 13.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 263.8 / 174.0 144.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 360.4 / 411.2 232.0 / 314.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -469 / +360 → -500 / +380 ↓
99%TICKETS1%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -12.5 / +12.5 → -12.5 / +12.5
67%TICKETS33%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 56.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
RICE
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -10.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
4-1-1 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: +0.9
RICE
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.7
RICE
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
UTSA
RICE
UTSA
ML
100% 6-0
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
ATS
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
TTL
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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