Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ Charlotte MEM @ CLT

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

4-1  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 11:00 AM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-5  |  Home

8
Key Game
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
@
Ian Kelly
KEY GAME

Ian Kelly

#44 | Punter
Player
Philippe Laforge None-None
Ian Kelly None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
87%
📊
CHARLOTTE
13%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (CLT)
MEMPHIS 92% Book Odds: -1205
CHARLOTTE 12% Book Odds: +750
Book Implied: 92.30% / 11.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 51%
Under 51.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.6
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
-18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Memphis)
MemphisMEM (-18.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (+18.5)
Memphis Tigers (-18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

91.9%

Charlotte Cover

8.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MEM -19.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-6 points

8.8%

MEM By 7-13 points

15.7%

CLT By 1-6 points

4.4%

CLT By 7-13 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35.8
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 35
16.2
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 16.50
Simulated Score
31
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 35
26
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 16.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Memphis Win
87% Win Prob
A
Sim Memphis Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Memphis (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.6
D
Sim Charlotte (+18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MEM @ CLT 59 - 8
Oct 26, 2024 CLT @ MEM 28 - 33
Nov 11, 2023 MEM @ CLT 44 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +69.7% more
Memphis: 223.5 vs Charlotte: 67.7
Total Yards (L5) +50.2% more
Memphis: 489.1 vs Charlotte: 243.3
First Downs (L5) +47.1% more
Memphis: 22.6 vs Charlotte: 12.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +27.0% more
Memphis: 0.5 vs Charlotte: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 35.8 59
CLT Score 16.2 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 12.0 / 22.6 8.0 / 36.0
Rushing Yards 67.7 / 223.5 132.0 / 288.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.5 0.1 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 243.3 / 489.1 209.0 / 674.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.2 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -2778 / +1300 → -1205 / +750 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -21.5 / +21.5 → -18.5 / +18.5 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 51.5 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +7.0
CLT
0-6-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -26.2 ATS +/-: -10.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +7.0
CLT
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -26.2 ATS +/-: -10.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.3
CLT
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
MEM
CLT
MEM
ML
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
ATS
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
TTL
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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