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MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

2-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

4-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
@
Gavin Lahm
KEY GAME

Gavin Lahm

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Rhys Dakin None-None
Gavin Lahm None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
43%
📊
WISCONSIN
57%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (MSU)
MICHIGAN ST 26% Book Odds: +280
WISCONSIN 78% Book Odds: -355
Book Implied: 26.30% / 78%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 66%
Under 43.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Michigan State)
Michigan StMSU (+8.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (-8.5)
Michigan State Spartans (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

58.5%

Wisconsin Cover

41.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

MSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

MSU By 7-13 points

12.9%

WIS By 1-6 points

17.0%

WIS By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
27
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
31
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 17.50
20
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wisconsin Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Loss
87% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Michigan St (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Sim Michigan St (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MSU @ WIS 3 - 31
Oct 15, 2022 WIS @ MSU 28 - 34
Oct 12, 2019 MSU @ WIS 0 - 38
Sep 24, 2016 WIS @ MSU 30 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Wisconsin: 131.1 vs Michigan State: 99.9
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Wisconsin: 361.0 vs Michigan State: 304.6
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Michigan State: 19.8 vs Wisconsin: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 24.0 3
WIS Score 27.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 19.8 17.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 131.1 / 99.9 228.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 361.0 / 304.6 373.0 / 235.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +285 / -360 → +280 / -355
3%TICKETS97%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 43.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
WIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
WIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
MSU
WIS
MSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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