Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ Iowa State WVU @ ISU

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

3-2  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

3-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Bryan Hansen
KEY GAME

Bryan Hansen

#83 | Punter
@
Ethan Gurney
KEY GAME

Ethan Gurney

#95 | Punter
Player
Bryan Hansen None-None
Ethan Gurney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
22%
📊
IOWA STATE
78%
▲ Edge: +17.40% (ISU)
WEST VIRGINIA 44% Book Odds: +130
IOWA STATE 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.50% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
Over 53.5 50%
Under 53.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.5
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Iowa State)
West VirginiaWVU (+3) 0 Iowa StateISU (-3)
Iowa State Cyclones (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

16.7%

Iowa State Cover

83.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

WVU By 1-6 points

8.2%

WVU By 7-13 points

5.0%

ISU By 1-6 points

13.2%

ISU By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 25.20
33.5
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
22
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 25.20
28
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State Win
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Iowa State Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -13.5
A
Sim Iowa State (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.5
D
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 WVU @ ISU 42 - 45
Oct 12, 2024 ISU @ WVU 28 - 16
Nov 5, 2022 WVU @ ISU 14 - 31
Oct 30, 2021 ISU @ WVU 31 - 38
Dec 5, 2020 WVU @ ISU 6 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Iowa State: 1.2 vs West Virginia: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.7% more
West Virginia: 261.2 vs Iowa State: 188.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
West Virginia: 0.5 vs Iowa State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.6% more
West Virginia: 432.6 vs Iowa State: 360.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 20.0 42
ISU Score 33.5 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 22.7 29.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 188.9 / 261.2 265.0 / 291.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 360.8 / 432.6 577.0 / 518.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115 → +130 / -155 ↑
20%TICKETS80%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 53.5
35%TICKETS65%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
ISU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
WVU
ISU
WVU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1-1
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2-1
25% 1-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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