Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Cincinnati @ Arizona CIN @ ARIZ

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

4-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 11:00 PM ET
Casino Del Sol Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

4-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
@
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
Player
Max Fletcher None-None
Chase Ridley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CINCINNATI
41%
📊
ARIZONA
59%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (CIN)
CINCINNATI 32% Book Odds: +215
ARIZONA 73% Book Odds: -265
Book Implied: 31.70% / 72.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 44%
Under 55.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
CincinnatiCIN (+7) 0 ArizonaARIZ (-7)
Cincinnati Bearcats (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cincinnati Cover

61.2%

Arizona Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-6 points

14.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

12.1%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

17.0%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 24.20
28.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 31.20
Simulated Score
31
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 24.20
30
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 31.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arizona Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
C
Sim Cincinnati (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 CIN @ ARIZ 7 - 34
Nov 15, 2025 ARIZ @ CIN 30 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Arizona: 1.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +10.1% more
Arizona: 23.0 vs Cincinnati: 20.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs Cincinnati: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.5% more
Cincinnati: 239.7 vs Arizona: 132.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 24.5 7
ARIZ Score 28.5 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 20.9 30.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 132.9 / 239.7 238.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 426.8 / 456.2 522.0 / 227.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285 → +215 / -265 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +7 / -7 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 55.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
ARIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
CIN
ARIZ
CIN
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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