Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Baylor @ Arizona St BAY @ ASU

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

4-1  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 10:30 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

2-2  |  Home

19
Key Game
Rhett Armstrong
KEY GAME

Rhett Armstrong

#98 | Place kicker
@
Nick McLarty
KEY GAME

Nick McLarty

#35 | Punter
Player
Rhett Armstrong None-None
Nick McLarty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
34%
📊
ARIZONA ST
66%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (ASU)
BAYLOR 42% Book Odds: +140
ARIZONA ST 62% Book Odds: -166
Book Implied: 41.70% / 62.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 (Over)
Over 49.5 63%
Under 49.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Arizona State)
BaylorBAY (+3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (-3.5)
Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Baylor Cover

30.9%

Arizona St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ASU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

BAY By 1-6 points

12.9%

BAY By 7-13 points

9.6%

ASU By 1-6 points

16.5%

ASU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24.2
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 23
31.2
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
29
BAYLOR
Book Implied: 23
35
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arizona St Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Arizona St Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona St (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Arizona St (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.4
B
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 BAY @ ASU 55 - 19
Sep 20, 2025 ASU @ BAY 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.6% more
Arizona State: 164.4 vs Baylor: 147.3
First Downs (L5) +23.8% more
Baylor: 24.4 vs Arizona State: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 24.2 55
ASU Score 31.2 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 24.4 23.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 164.4 / 147.3 99.0 / 244.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 382.9 / 413.2 409.0 / 564.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.9 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -170 → +140 / -166 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4 / -4 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 49.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +7.8
ASU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +7.8
ASU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -7.0
ASU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +8.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
BAY
ASU
BAY
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
TTL
50% 4-4
88% 7-1
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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