Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ Kansas MTSU @ KU

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

2-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

KANSASKU

2-2  |  Home

55
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Matthew Gill
KEY GAME

Matthew Gill

#99 | Punter
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Matthew Gill None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
8%
📊
KANSAS
92%
MTSU 11% Book Odds: +850
KANSAS 94% Book Odds: -1450
Book Implied: 10.50% / 93.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 71%
Under 51.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
-21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kansas)
MTSUMTSU (+21) 0 KansasKU (-21)
Kansas Jayhawks (-21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

3.7%

Kansas Cover

96.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)

MTSU By 1-6 points

2.2%

MTSU By 7-13 points

0.9%

KU By 1-6 points

5.3%

KU By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 15.20
42.5
KANSAS
Book Implied: 36.20
Simulated Score
23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 15.20
32
KANSAS
Book Implied: 36.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim Kansas Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas (-21) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
B
Sim MTSU (+21) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MTSU @ KU 0 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +196.0% more
Kansas: 2.3 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Kansas: 177.2 vs Middle Tennessee: 135.1
Total Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Kansas: 400.3 vs Middle Tennessee: 358.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 17.5 0
KU Score 42.5 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 20.3 36.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 177.2 / 135.1 480.0 / 55.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.58 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.68 / 0.32
Total Yards 400.3 / 358.1 706.0 / 136.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +741 / -1342 → +850 / -1450
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20 / -20 → +21 / -21 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 51.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -1.8
KU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -1.8
KU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.0
KU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
MTSU
KU
MTSU
ML
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
0% 0-5
50% 3-3
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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