Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kentucky @ South Carolina UK @ SC

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

4-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 4:15 PM ET
Williams-Brice Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINASC

2-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Thomas O'Hara
KEY GAME

Thomas O'Hara

#48 | Punter
@
Malik Orsan
KEY GAME

Malik Orsan

#32 | Place kicker
Player
Thomas O'Hara None-None
Malik Orsan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
38%
📊
SOUTH CAROLINA
62%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (SC)
KENTUCKY 47% Book Odds: +115
SOUTH CAROLINA 57% Book Odds: -130
Book Implied: 46.50% / 56.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.6
Projected
Book Total
53.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 53.0 49%
Under 53.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (South Carolina)
KentuckyUK (+2.5) 0 South CarolinaSC (-2.5)
South Carolina Gamecocks (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kentucky Cover

36.0%

South Carolina Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SC)

UK By 1-6 points

14.2%

UK By 7-13 points

11.3%

SC By 1-6 points

16.9%

SC By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 25.20
28.8
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27.80
Simulated Score
20
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 25.20
36
SOUTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Carolina Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim South Carolina Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Carolina (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim South Carolina (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 52.6
D
Sim o53.0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UK @ SC 35 - 34
Sep 27, 2025 UK @ SC 13 - 35
Sep 7, 2024 SC @ UK 31 - 6
Nov 18, 2023 UK @ SC 14 - 17
Oct 8, 2022 SC @ UK 24 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
South Carolina: 1.8 vs Kentucky: 1.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
South Carolina: 0.4 vs Kentucky: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
South Carolina: 22.4 vs Kentucky: 20.6
Total Yards (L5) +8.6% more
South Carolina: 454.5 vs Kentucky: 418.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 23.8 35
SC Score 28.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 20.6 21.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 215.7 / 213.4 232.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 454.5 / 418.3 458.0 / 394.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -225 → +115 / -130 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6 / -6 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 53 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.9
SC
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.2 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.9
SC
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 12.2 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +10.2
SC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +7.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SC
UK
SC
UK
ML
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
ATS
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
17% 1-5
TTL
17% 1-5
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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