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VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

3-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-2  |  Home

38
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Daniel Hughes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
57%
📊
FLORIDA ST
43%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (UVA)
VIRGINIA 53% Book Odds: -112
FLORIDA ST 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 47%
Under 51.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Virginia)
VirginiaUVA (-1.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+1.5)
Virginia Cavaliers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

58.5%

Florida St Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UVA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

UVA By 1-6 points

17.0%

UVA By 7-13 points

17.5%

FSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

FSU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 26.50
23.5
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
29
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 26.50
31
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Virginia Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Virginia (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Florida St (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UVA @ FSU 7 - 38
Sep 26, 2025 FSU @ UVA 38 - 46
Sep 14, 2019 FSU @ UVA 24 - 31
Nov 8, 2014 UVA @ FSU 20 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +17.1% more
Virginia: 25.2 vs Florida State: 20.9
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
Virginia: 0.6 vs Florida State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +89.0% more
Florida State: 1.7 vs Virginia: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 26.5 7
FSU Score 23.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 25.2 22.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 162.3 / 153.1 281.0 / 37.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 412.7 / 439.6 464.0 / 205.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -118 / -102 → -112 / -108 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
34%TICKETS66%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
UVA
FSU
UVA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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