Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisville @ NC State LOU @ NCSU

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

2-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

3-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Niall Hayes

#91 | Punter
@
Elijah Satchell
KEY GAME

Elijah Satchell

#58 | Linebacker
Player
Niall Hayes None-None
Elijah Satchell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISVILLE
55%
📊
NC STATE
45%
▲ Edge: +10.20% (NCSU)
LOUISVILLE 69% Book Odds: -225
NC STATE 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.20% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 56.5 54%
Under 56.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (NC State)
LouisvilleLOU (-5.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+5.5)
NC State Wolfpack (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisville Cover

44.3%

NC State Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NCSU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

LOU By 1-6 points

16.9%

LOU By 7-13 points

16.8%

NCSU By 1-6 points

15.7%

NCSU By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
30.2
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 31
28.2
NC STATE
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
29
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 31
34
NC STATE
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisville Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim NC State Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI NC State (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim NC State (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.4
C
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 LOU @ NCSU 28 - 31
Sep 29, 2023 LOU @ NCSU 13 - 10
Nov 19, 2022 NCSU @ LOU 10 - 25
Oct 30, 2021 LOU @ NCSU 13 - 28
Nov 16, 2019 LOU @ NCSU 34 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +77.0% more
NC State: 1.3 vs Louisville: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
NC State: 209.4 vs Louisville: 175.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
NC State: 0.6 vs Louisville: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 30.2 28
NCSU Score 28.2 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 23.2 26.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 209.4 / 175.7 120.0 / 231.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 463.6 / 442.2 493.0 / 485.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -229 / +188 → -225 / +185
93%TICKETS7%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6 / +6 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60.5 → 56.5 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
NCSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
LOU
NCSU
LOU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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