Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCF @ Houston UCF @ HOU

UCF

UCFUCF

3-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

4-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Atticus Bertrams
KEY GAME

Atticus Bertrams

#49 | Punter
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Atticus Bertrams None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
27%
📊
HOUSTON
73%
▲ Edge: +3.50% (UCF)
UCF 23% Book Odds: +330
HOUSTON 81% Book Odds: -426
Book Implied: 23.30% / 81%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 65%
Under 50.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
UCFUCF (+10.5) 0 HoustonHOU (-10.5)
Houston Cougars (-10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCF Cover

22.4%

Houston Cover

77.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -10.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

UCF By 1-6 points

10.3%

UCF By 7-13 points

6.8%

HOU By 1-6 points

14.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.2
UCF
Book Implied: 20
33.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 30.50
Simulated Score
21
UCF
Book Implied: 20
39
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 30.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Houston Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Houston (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.6
D
Sim Houston (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UCF @ HOU 17 - 27
Nov 7, 2025 HOU @ UCF 30 - 27
Nov 25, 2023 HOU @ UCF 13 - 27
Oct 31, 2020 UCF @ HOU 44 - 21
Nov 2, 2019 HOU @ UCF 29 - 44
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +70.6% more
Houston: 28.0 vs UCF: 16.4
Total Yards (L5) +44.9% more
Houston: 471.2 vs UCF: 325.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.5% more
Houston: 225.6 vs UCF: 160.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +38.0% more
Houston: 0.7 vs UCF: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 23.2 17
HOU Score 33.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.0 / 16.4 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 225.6 / 160.6 154.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.7 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 471.2 / 325.3 393.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +330 / -426 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11.5 / -11.5 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
HOU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 18.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
HOU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 18.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
UCF
HOU
UCF
ML
100% 7-0
67% 4-2
86% 6-1
100% 6-0
ATS
43% 3-4
33% 2-4
57% 4-3
33% 2-4
TTL
57% 4-3
50% 3-3
57% 4-3
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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