Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida @ Missouri FLA @ MIZ

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

4-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:50 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

4-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Alec Clark
KEY GAME

Alec Clark

#38 | Punter
@
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
Player
Alec Clark None-None
Brunno Reus None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
34%
📊
MISSOURI
66%
▲ Edge: +30.40% (MIZ)
FLORIDA 69% Book Odds: -218
MISSOURI 36% Book Odds: +180
Book Implied: 68.60% / 35.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.6
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 (Over)
Over 57.5 57%
Under 57.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (Missouri)
FloridaFLA (-5.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+5.5)
Missouri Tigers (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida Cover

30.9%

Missouri Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

FLA By 1-6 points

12.9%

FLA By 7-13 points

9.6%

MIZ By 1-6 points

16.5%

MIZ By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 31.50
33.8
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
26
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 31.50
34
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Missouri Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Missouri (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.6
C
Sim o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 FLA @ MIZ 17 - 45
Nov 18, 2023 FLA @ MIZ 31 - 33
Oct 8, 2022 MIZ @ FLA 17 - 24
Nov 20, 2021 FLA @ MIZ 23 - 24
Oct 31, 2020 MIZ @ FLA 17 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.6% more
Florida: 248.6 vs Missouri: 157.5
Turnovers (L5) +33.0% more
Florida: 0.8 vs Missouri: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Florida: 482.1 vs Missouri: 377.9
First Downs (L5) +16.3% more
Florida: 24.7 vs Missouri: 20.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 26.8 17
MIZ Score 33.8 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 24.7 24.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 157.5 / 248.6 220.0 / 42.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 377.9 / 482.1 560.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -218 / +180 → -218 / +180
97%TICKETS3%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -5.5 / +5.5
72%TICKETS28%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 57.5 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
FLA
MIZ
FLA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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