Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan @ Minnesota MICH @ MINN

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

3-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

4-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
@
Luke Drzewiecki
KEY GAME

Luke Drzewiecki

#-- | Place kicker
Player
Cam Brown None-None
Luke Drzewiecki None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN
60%
📊
MINNESOTA
40%
▲ Edge: +6.90% (MINN)
MICHIGAN 71% Book Odds: -245
MINNESOTA 33% Book Odds: +200
Book Implied: 71% / 33.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 41.5 58%
Under 41.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Minnesota)
MichiganMICH (-6.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+6.5)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (+6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan Cover

38.8%

Minnesota Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MINN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

MICH By 1-6 points

17.0%

MICH By 7-13 points

18.0%

MINN By 1-6 points

14.7%

MINN By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
25.5
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 24
21.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 17.50
Simulated Score
22
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 24
33
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 17.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Michigan Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Minnesota Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Minnesota (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
C
Sim Minnesota (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MICH @ MINN 14 - 20
Sep 28, 2024 MINN @ MICH 24 - 27
Oct 7, 2023 MICH @ MINN 52 - 10
Oct 24, 2020 MICH @ MINN 49 - 24
Nov 4, 2017 MINN @ MICH 10 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.6% more
Michigan: 1.5 vs Minnesota: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.9% more
Michigan: 159.2 vs Minnesota: 119.6
Total Yards (L5) +8.4% more
Michigan: 370.6 vs Minnesota: 339.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 25.5 14
MINN Score 21.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 19.8 17.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 119.6 / 159.2 126.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 339.5 / 370.6 262.0 / 180.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -298 / +240 → -245 / +200 ↑
94%TICKETS6%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -6.5 / +6.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 41.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -4.9
MINN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -4.9
MINN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -8.4
MINN
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
MICH
MINN
MICH
ML
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
TTL
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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