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BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

2-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

4-1  |  Home

25
Key Game
Bryce LaFollette
KEY GAME

Bryce LaFollette

#96 | Punter
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Bryce LaFollette None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOSTON COLLEGE
11%
📊
SMU
89%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (BC)
BOSTON COLLEGE 10% Book Odds: +950
SMU 94% Book Odds: -1639
Book Implied: 9.50% / 94.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 54%
Under 54.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SMU
Book Spread
-21.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (SMU)
Boston CollegeBC (+21.5) 0 SMUSMU (-21.5)
SMU Mustangs (-21.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boston College Cover

5.8%

SMU Cover

94.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SMU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

BC By 1-6 points

3.3%

BC By 7-13 points

1.5%

SMU By 1-6 points

7.2%

SMU By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 16.50
39.5
SMU
Book Implied: 38
Simulated Score
24
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 16.50
37
SMU
Book Implied: 38
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI SMU Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim SMU Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI SMU (-21.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Boston College (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 BC @ SMU 16 - 25
Nov 8, 2025 SMU @ BC 45 - 13
Nov 16, 2024 BC @ SMU 28 - 38
Dec 28, 2023 SMU @ BC 14 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +54.7% more
SMU: 536.9 vs Boston College: 347.0
Turnovers (L5) +53.0% more
SMU: 2.1 vs Boston College: 1.3
First Downs (L5) +41.7% more
SMU: 25.0 vs Boston College: 17.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
SMU: 0.5 vs Boston College: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 17.5 16
SMU Score 39.5 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.0 / 17.6 21.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 162.3 / 154.6 58.0 / 114.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 536.9 / 347.0 218.0 / 322.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1100 / -2083 → +950 / -1639 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +21 / -21 → +21.5 / -21.5 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 54.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
BC
SMU
BC
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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