Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Tennessee AUB @ TENN

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

3-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

4-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Hudson Kaak None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
32%
📊
TENNESSEE
68%
AUBURN 35% Book Odds: +190
TENNESSEE 70% Book Odds: -230
Book Implied: 34.50% / 69.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 51%
Under 54.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
-6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tennessee)
AuburnAUB (+6) 0 TennesseeTENN (-6)
Tennessee Volunteers (-6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

28.4%

Tennessee Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TENN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

AUB By 1-6 points

12.2%

AUB By 7-13 points

8.8%

TENN By 1-6 points

16.1%

TENN By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
AUBURN
Book Implied: 24.20
31.5
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 30.20
Simulated Score
24
AUBURN
Book Implied: 24.20
39
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 30.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tennessee Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Tennessee Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tennessee (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Tennessee (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 AUB @ TENN 14 - 24
Nov 21, 2020 TENN @ AUB 17 - 30
Oct 13, 2018 TENN @ AUB 30 - 24
Nov 9, 2013 AUB @ TENN 55 - 23
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +15.4% more
Tennessee: 24.4 vs Auburn: 21.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Tennessee: 194.3 vs Auburn: 169.8
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Auburn: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +51.7% more
Auburn: 1.2 vs Tennessee: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 23.5 14
TENN Score 31.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.4 / 21.2 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 194.3 / 169.8 237.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.21 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 392.6 / 390.1 323.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285 → +190 / -230 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +6 / -6 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 54.5 ↓
22%TICKETS78%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
AUB
TENN
AUB
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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