Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas Tech @ Colorado TTU @ COLO

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

5-0  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Folsom Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

2-3  |  Home

7
Key Game
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
@
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
Player
Will Karoll None-None
Damon Greaves None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS TECH
88%
📊
COLORADO
12%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (TTU)
TEXAS TECH 86% Book Odds: -600
COLORADO 19% Book Odds: +440
Book Implied: 85.70% / 18.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 50.5 45%
Under 50.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
-13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Texas Tech)
Texas TechTTU (-13.5) 0 ColoradoCOLO (+13.5)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Tech Cover

93.3%

Colorado Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TTU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

TTU By 1-6 points

7.9%

TTU By 7-13 points

14.6%

COLO By 1-6 points

3.8%

COLO By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
34
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 32
13
COLORADO
Book Implied: 18.50
Simulated Score
30
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 32
27
COLORADO
Book Implied: 18.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech Win
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas Tech Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Tech (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Sim Colorado (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 TTU @ COLO 29 - 7
Nov 9, 2024 COLO @ TTU 41 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.2% more
Texas Tech: 184.7 vs Colorado: 136.4
Turnovers (L5) +24.7% more
Texas Tech: 2.4 vs Colorado: 1.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.5 vs Colorado: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Texas Tech: 438.6 vs Colorado: 376.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 34.0 29
COLO Score 13.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 23.3 22.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 136.4 / 184.7 78.0 / 181.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 376.1 / 438.6 375.0 / 315.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 2.4 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -800 / +550 → -600 / +440 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14.5 / +14.5 → -13.5 / +13.5 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50.5
69%TICKETS31%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: -5.0
COLO
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: -5.0
COLO
2-5-1 (28.6%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +2.1
COLO
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
TTU
COLO
TTU
ML
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
100% 8-0
ATS
43% 3-4-1
62% 5-3
71% 5-2-1
38% 3-5
TTL
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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