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WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

3-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

5-1  |  Home

25
Key Game
Tyler Robles
KEY GAME

Tyler Robles

#95 | Place kicker
@
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
Player
Tyler Robles None-None
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON
36%
📊
USC
64%
▲ Edge: +7% (WASH)
WASHINGTON 29% Book Odds: +250
USC 76% Book Odds: -310
Book Implied: 28.60% / 75.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.9 (Under)
Over 58.5 35%
Under 58.5 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Washington)
WashingtonWASH (+7.5) 0 USCUSC (-7.5)
Washington Huskies (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington Cover

66.6%

USC Cover

33.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WASH +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

WASH By 1-6 points

13.5%

WASH By 7-13 points

10.4%

USC By 1-6 points

16.7%

USC By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
22.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 25.50
28.8
USC
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
24
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 25.50
35
USC
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI USC Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim USC Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Washington (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim USC (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u58.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.6
B
Sim o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 WASH @ USC 21 - 25
Nov 2, 2024 USC @ WASH 21 - 26
Nov 4, 2023 WASH @ USC 52 - 42
Sep 28, 2019 USC @ WASH 14 - 28
Nov 12, 2016 USC @ WASH 26 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.0% more
USC: 151.1 vs Washington: 105.6
First Downs (L5) +31.1% more
USC: 24.9 vs Washington: 19.0
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
USC: 460.4 vs Washington: 378.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
USC: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WASH Score 22.8 21
USC Score 28.8 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 19.0 21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 151.1 / 105.6 115.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 460.4 / 378.8 360.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +295 / -375 → +250 / -310 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 58.5 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -8.9
USC Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH Advantage
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -8.9
USC
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -0.8
USC
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
WASH
USC
WASH
ML
88% 7-1
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
ATS
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
50% 4-4
43% 3-4
TTL
50% 4-4
86% 6-1
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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