Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / BYU @ TCU BYU @ TCU

BYU

BYUBYU

4-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

2-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Fuller Shurtz
KEY GAME

Fuller Shurtz

#19 | Punter
@
John Hoyet Chance
KEY GAME

John Hoyet Chance

#48 | Punter
Player
Fuller Shurtz None-None
John Hoyet Chance None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
60%
📊
TCU
40%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (TCU)
BYU 69% Book Odds: -225
TCU 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.20% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 49.5 57%
Under 49.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
TCU
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (TCU)
BYUBYU (-6) 0 TCUTCU (+6)
TCU Horned Frogs (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

BYU Cover

38.8%

TCU Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TCU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

BYU By 1-6 points

17.0%

BYU By 7-13 points

18.0%

TCU By 1-6 points

14.7%

TCU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
BYU
Book Implied: 27.80
23.8
TCU
Book Implied: 21.80
Simulated Score
28
BYU
Book Implied: 27.80
36
TCU
Book Implied: 21.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI BYU Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim TCU Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI TCU (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim TCU (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
C
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 BYU @ TCU 17 - 10
Nov 15, 2025 TCU @ BYU 13 - 44
Oct 14, 2023 BYU @ TCU 11 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.9% more
BYU: 224.5 vs TCU: 135.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
BYU: 0.5 vs TCU: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +77.5% more
TCU: 2.1 vs BYU: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 27.8 17
TCU Score 23.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 21.5 14.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 135.0 / 224.5 72.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 458.9 / 451.9 259.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -225 / +185 → -225 / +185
97%TICKETS3%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -6 / +6 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 49.5 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.9
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
BYU
TCU
BYU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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