Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas @ Texas A&M ARK @ TA&M

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

3-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Gavin Rush
KEY GAME

Gavin Rush

#37 | Punter
@
David Olano
KEY GAME

David Olano

#24 | Place kicker
Player
Gavin Rush None-None
David Olano None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
11%
📊
TEXAS A&M
89%
▲ Edge: +4.20% (TA&M)
ARKANSAS 19% Book Odds: +425
TEXAS A&M 85% Book Odds: -575
Book Implied: 19% / 85.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 64%
Under 50.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.6
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
-13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 points (Texas A&M)
ArkansasARK (+13.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (-13.5)
Texas A&M Aggies (-13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas Cover

5.3%

Texas A&M Cover

94.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -22.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

ARK By 1-6 points

3.1%

ARK By 7-13 points

1.4%

TA&M By 1-6 points

6.8%

TA&M By 7-13 points

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 18.50
39.8
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 32
Simulated Score
21
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 18.50
34
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 32
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas A&M Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas A&M Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas A&M (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.6
A
Sim Arkansas (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ARK @ TA&M 7 - 34
Oct 18, 2025 TA&M @ ARK 45 - 42
Sep 28, 2024 ARK @ TA&M 17 - 21
Sep 30, 2023 TA&M @ ARK 34 - 22
Sep 24, 2022 ARK @ TA&M 21 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.3% more
Texas A&M: 1.8 vs Arkansas: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.4% more
Texas A&M: 138.8 vs Arkansas: 100.3
First Downs (L5) +15.9% more
Arkansas: 22.0 vs Texas A&M: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.1% more
Arkansas: 374.1 vs Texas A&M: 325.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 17.2 7
TA&M Score 39.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 22.0 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 138.8 / 100.3 231.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 325.0 / 374.1 401.0 / 214.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +575 / -847 → +425 / -575 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
ARK
TA&M
ARK
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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