Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ North Carolina ND @ UNC

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

5-0  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-2  |  Home

26
Key Game
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
@
Aeron Burrell
KEY GAME

Aeron Burrell

#92 | Place kicker
Player
Jasper Scaife None-None
Aeron Burrell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
69%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
31%
▲ Edge: +21.60% (UNC)
NOTRE DAME 95% Book Odds: -1786
NORTH CAROLINA 9% Book Odds: +1000
Book Implied: 94.70% / 9.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 46.5 46%
Under 46.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.5
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
+21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (North Carolina)
Notre DameND (-21) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+21)
North Carolina Tar Heels (+21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

27.2%

North Carolina Cover

72.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNC +8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

ND By 1-6 points

15.9%

ND By 7-13 points

19.6%

UNC By 1-6 points

11.8%

UNC By 7-13 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 33.80
18
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 12.80
Simulated Score
33
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 33.80
24
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 12.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Notre Dame Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Notre Dame Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Carolina (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +8.5
A
Sim North Carolina (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.5
C
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ND @ UNC 37 - 26
Sep 24, 2022 ND @ UNC 45 - 32
Oct 30, 2021 UNC @ ND 34 - 44
Nov 27, 2020 ND @ UNC 31 - 17
Oct 7, 2017 ND @ UNC 33 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Notre Dame: 432.1 vs North Carolina: 338.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.7% more
Notre Dame: 167.7 vs North Carolina: 146.4
Turnovers (L5) +58.0% more
North Carolina: 1.0 vs Notre Dame: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 26.5 37
UNC Score 18.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 20.6 18.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 146.4 / 167.7 77.0 / 241.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 338.8 / 432.1 285.0 / 475.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -2083 / +1100 → -1786 / +1000 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -21.5 / +21.5 → -21 / +21 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 46.5 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
ND
UNC
ND
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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