Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ Georgia VAN @ UGA

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

3-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:45 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

5-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Tyler Ebel
KEY GAME

Tyler Ebel

#37 | Punter
@
Drew Miller
KEY GAME

Drew Miller

#90 | Punter
Player
Tyler Ebel None-None
Drew Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
25%
📊
GEORGIA
75%
▲ Edge: +18.60% (VAN)
VANDERBILT 7% Book Odds: +1400
GEORGIA 97% Book Odds: -3226
Book Implied: 6.70% / 97%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 (Over)
Over 49.5 69%
Under 49.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.5
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
+25.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Vanderbilt)
VanderbiltVAN (+25.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (-25.5)
Vanderbilt Commodores (+25.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

79.4%

Georgia Cover

20.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN +11.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1-6 points

9.6%

VAN By 7-13 points

6.2%

UGA By 1-6 points

14.4%

UGA By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 12
35.5
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 37.50
Simulated Score
27
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 12
35
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 37.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Georgia Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Georgia Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.5
A
Sim Vanderbilt (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.5
A
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 VAN @ UGA 14 - 38
Oct 14, 2023 UGA @ VAN 37 - 20
Oct 15, 2022 VAN @ UGA 0 - 55
Sep 25, 2021 UGA @ VAN 62 - 0
Aug 31, 2019 UGA @ VAN 30 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.7% more
Georgia: 197.7 vs Vanderbilt: 136.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Georgia: 0.5 vs Vanderbilt: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Georgia: 421.0 vs Vanderbilt: 383.6
Turnovers (L5) +15.9% more
Vanderbilt: 1.3 vs Georgia: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 24.0 14
UGA Score 35.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 21.3 26.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 197.7 / 136.6 176.0 / 85.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.7 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 421.0 / 383.6 471.0 / 293.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1500 / -3571 → +1400 / -3226
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +25.5 / -25.5 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 49.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
UGA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
UGA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
VAN
UGA
VAN
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
TTL
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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