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PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Fri, Oct 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Ryan Field
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

3-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Nikola Dugandzic
KEY GAME

Nikola Dugandzic

#92 | Punter
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Nikola Dugandzic None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
57%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
43%
PENN STATE 57% Book Odds: -135
NORTHWESTERN 47% Book Odds: +114
Book Implied: 57.40% / 46.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.4
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 46.5 51%
Under 46.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Penn State)
Penn StatePSU (-2.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+2.5)
Penn State Nittany Lions (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

58.5%

Northwestern Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

PSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

PSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

NU By 1-6 points

15.3%

NU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
22.2
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
31
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
25
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penn State (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Penn State (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.4
D
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 PSU @ NU 13 - 34
Oct 11, 2025 NU @ PSU 22 - 21
Sep 30, 2023 PSU @ NU 41 - 13
Oct 1, 2022 NU @ PSU 7 - 17
Oct 7, 2017 PSU @ NU 31 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.2% more
Penn State: 183.6 vs Northwestern: 119.1
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Northwestern: 0.7 vs Penn State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 25.2 13
NU Score 22.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 19.4 25.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 119.1 / 183.6 413.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 372.9 / 394.0 506.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -218 / +180 → -135 / +114 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 46.5 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
NU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.2 ATS +/-: +13.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
NU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.2 ATS +/-: +13.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
NU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
PSU
NU
PSU
ML
75% 3-1
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
17% 1-5
TTL
100% 4-0
83% 5-1
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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