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LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

4-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Fri, Oct 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Delaware Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

2-3  |  Home

14
Key Game
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
@
Josh Cupitt
KEY GAME

Josh Cupitt

#39 | Punter
Player
Sam Crossan None-None
Josh Cupitt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
33%
📊
DELAWARE
67%
▲ Edge: +37.20% (DEL)
LIBERTY 74% Book Odds: -290
DELAWARE 30% Book Odds: +235
Book Implied: 74.40% / 29.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 49%
Under 51.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
DELAWARE
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.9 points (Delaware)
LibertyLIB (-7.5) 0 DelawareDEL (+7.5)
Delaware Blue Hens (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

29.9%

Delaware Cover

70.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEL -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

LIB By 1-6 points

12.6%

LIB By 7-13 points

9.3%

DEL By 1-6 points

16.3%

DEL By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 29.50
29.2
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
26
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 29.50
32
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Delaware Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.4
A
Sim Delaware (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 LIB @ DEL 30 - 14
Nov 1, 2025 DEL @ LIB 30 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.1% more
Liberty: 220.1 vs Delaware: 103.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.2% more
Liberty: 437.9 vs Delaware: 323.3
First Downs (L5) +18.2% more
Liberty: 22.2 vs Delaware: 18.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.8% more
Liberty: 1.6 vs Delaware: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 21.8 30
DEL Score 29.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 22.2 16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 103.1 / 220.1 102.0 / 282.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.15 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 323.3 / 437.9 359.0 / 439.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.6 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -230 / +190 → -290 / +235 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 51.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: +5.8
DEL
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -4.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: +5.8
DEL
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -5.2
DEL
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
LIB
DEL
LIB
ML
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
ATS
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
TTL
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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