Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ Virginia Tech PITT @ VT

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

5-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Fri, Oct 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

4-1  |  Home

33
Key Game
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
@
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Gabe Russo None-None
John Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
70%
📊
VIRGINIA TECH
30%
▲ Edge: +21.60% (PITT)
PITT 49% Book Odds: +105
VIRGINIA TECH 56% Book Odds: -125
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 49%
Under 54.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Pittsburgh)
PittPITT (+1.5) 0 Virginia TechVT (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Panthers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

74.0%

Virginia Tech Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PITT -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

PITT By 1-6 points

15.7%

PITT By 7-13 points

19.7%

VT By 1-6 points

11.5%

VT By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
31
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 26.50
22
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
27
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 26.50
34
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Virginia Tech Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Sim Virginia Tech (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 PITT @ VT 35 - 33
Sep 30, 2023 PITT @ VT 21 - 38
Oct 8, 2022 VT @ PITT 29 - 45
Oct 16, 2021 PITT @ VT 28 - 7
Nov 21, 2020 VT @ PITT 14 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.3% more
Pittsburgh: 515.9 vs Virginia Tech: 406.0
First Downs (L5) +11.5% more
Pittsburgh: 26.0 vs Virginia Tech: 23.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.5 vs Virginia Tech: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 31.0 35
VT Score 22.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 26.0 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 178.8 / 171.4 65.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 406.0 / 515.9 499.0 / 295.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218 → +105 / -125 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6 / -6 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 54.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 20.2 ATS +/-: +5.0
VT
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 20.2 ATS +/-: +5.0
VT
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.7
VT
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
PITT
VT
PITT
ML
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
ATS
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
17% 1-5
TTL
17% 1-5
17% 1-5
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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