Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Tulsa UNT @ TLSA

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

3-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Thu, Oct 1 • 9:00 PM ET
H. A. Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

3-2  |  Home

44
Key Game
Dominic De Freitas
KEY GAME

Dominic De Freitas

#90 | Place kicker
@
Max Tulen
KEY GAME

Max Tulen

#29 | Punter
Player
Dominic De Freitas None-None
Max Tulen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
73%
📊
TULSA
27%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (UNT)
NORTH TEXAS 60% Book Odds: -148
TULSA 45% Book Odds: +124
Book Implied: 59.70% / 44.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.5
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +9.0 (Under)
Over 56.5 31%
Under 56.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (North Texas)
North TexasUNT (-3) 0 TulsaTLSA (+3)
North Texas Mean Green (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

77.3%

Tulsa Cover

22.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNT -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-6 points

15.0%

UNT By 7-13 points

19.7%

TLSA By 1-6 points

10.4%

TLSA By 7-13 points

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
29
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 29.80
18.5
TULSA
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
34
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 29.80
23
TULSA
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim North Texas Win
87% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.5
A
Sim North Texas (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.5
A
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 UNT @ TLSA 45 - 44
Sep 28, 2024 TLSA @ UNT 20 - 52
Nov 18, 2023 UNT @ TLSA 35 - 28
Nov 30, 2013 UNT @ TLSA 42 - 10
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +38.7% more
North Texas: 28.9 vs Tulsa: 17.7
Total Yards (L5) +36.3% more
North Texas: 553.0 vs Tulsa: 352.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
North Texas: 0.6 vs Tulsa: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.3% more
North Texas: 190.4 vs Tulsa: 174.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 29.0 45
TLSA Score 18.5 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 28.9 22.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 174.6 / 190.4 141.0 / 227.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.18 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 352.0 / 553.0 352.0 / 559.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → -148 / +124 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 56.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
TLSA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
UNT
TLSA
UNT
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Wisconsin Badgers Rank Third in National TV Viewership Through E…
si 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Rodriguez: Roster Turnover Slowing WVU's Progress
theintermountain 18 hours, 9 minutes ago
Florida Gators Seek Redemption After Blowout Loss, Turn Focus to…
yourvalley_net 1 day, 12 hours ago
Mountaineers' Defensive Coordinator Zac Alley Loses Sleep Over S…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago