MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
73-84 | Road
2
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
65-92 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | 9-10 | 4.74 | 1.24 | 125.1 | 107 |
| Landen Roupp | 9-14 | 4.01 | 1.30 | 155.0 | 143 |
9-10
W-L
9-14
4.74
ERA
Ldr 4.01
1.24 Ldr
WHIP
1.30
125.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 155.0
107
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 143
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
38%
GIANTS
62%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (SF)
TWINS
57%
Book Odds: -132
GIANTS
48%
Book Odds: +109
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
MIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
San Francisco
5.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4.80
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Giants
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
MIN @ SF
4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIN @ SF
3 - 2
Sep 21, 2026
MIN @ SF
2 - 5
May 11, 2025
SF @ MIN
6 - 7
May 10, 2025
SF @ MIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
▲
OPS
.706
187
▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+53.3% more
San Francisco: 3.2
vs
Minnesota: 2.1
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
San Francisco: 0.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.2% more
San Francisco: 11.3
vs
Minnesota: 9.6
Hits (L5)
+41.2% more
Minnesota: 10.6
vs
San Francisco: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.5
2
SF Score
5.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 10.6
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 9.6
13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.6 / 14.9
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.1
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / +102
→
-132 / +109
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
MIN
SF
MIN
ML
49%
79-81
52%
84-78
53%
85-75
50%
80-81
ATS
62%
100-60
59%
95-67
52%
83-77
59%
95-66
TTL
55%
82-68-10
51%
78-75-9
46%
68-81-11
53%
80-72-9
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