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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

73-84  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Sep 21 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

74-83  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
DJ Herz
STARTING PITCHER

DJ Herz

#77 | Starting Pitcher
@
River Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

River Ryan

#77 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
DJ Herz 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
River Ryan 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
0-0 W-L 0-0
0.00 ERA 0.00
0.00 WHIP 0.00
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
25%
📊
TIGERS
75%
▲ Edge: +18.40% (DET)
NATIONALS 48% Book Odds: +110
TIGERS 57% Book Odds: -133
Book Implied: 47.60% / 57.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Detroit)
NationalsWSH (+1.5) 0 TigersDET (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

30.9%

Tigers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
5.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Tigers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 WSH @ DET 4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 WSH @ DET 3 - 1
Sep 21, 2026 WSH @ DET 2 - 9
Jul 3, 2025 DET @ WSH 7 - 11
Jul 2, 2025 DET @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.744 ▲
OPS
.720
210 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +33.2% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Washington: 3.4
Strikeouts (L5) +24.1% more
Detroit: 8.8 vs Washington: 7.1
Home Runs (L5) +41.0% more
Washington: 0.9 vs Detroit: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +13.8% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Detroit: 181.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.5 2
DET Score 5.5 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 8.3 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.9 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 7.1 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 12.8 27.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.4 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156 → +110 / -133 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
54%TICKETS46%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
WSH
DET
WSH
ML
54% 86-73
57% 92-69
54% 87-73
54% 87-74
ATS
64% 101-58
58% 93-68
57% 91-69
57% 91-70
TTL
46% 69-81-9
50% 77-78-6
46% 69-81-10
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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