Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Orioles TOR @ BAL

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

77-80  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Sep 21 • 6:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

76-81  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Trey Yesavage
STARTING PITCHER

Trey Yesavage

#39 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shane Baz
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Baz

#34 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trey Yesavage 5-5 3.65 1.14 93.2 91
Shane Baz 6-15 4.11 1.35 173.0 152
5-5 W-L 6-15
3.65 Ldr ERA 4.11
1.14 Ldr WHIP 1.35
93.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 173.0
91 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 152
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
57%
📊
ORIOLES
43%
▲ Edge: +4.40% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS 52% Book Odds: -110
ORIOLES 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 52.40% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 60%
Under 7.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Blue JaysTOR (-1.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

35.4%

Orioles Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.5%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
3.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 TOR @ BAL 2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026 TOR @ BAL 3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026 BAL @ TOR 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 BAL @ TOR 3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026 BAL @ TOR 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Baltimore BAL
159
Games Played
159
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.43
.248 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.382
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.692
OPS
▲ .707
150
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +72.0% more
Toronto: 0.9 vs Baltimore: 0.2
Walks (L5) +24.2% more
Toronto: 3.6 vs Baltimore: 2.7
Hits (L5) +20.6% more
Toronto: 8.2 vs Baltimore: 6.5
Batting Avg (Season) +1.5%
Toronto: 24.8% vs Baltimore: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 5.0 3
BAL Score 3.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.2 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 5.6 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 11.4 17.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.6 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -110 / -110
61%TICKETS39%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
78%TICKETS22%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
91%TICKETS9%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
77-82-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
78-81-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(47.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
80-74-5
O: 51.9% / U: 48.1% Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
78-77-4
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53% 82-73
46% 72-86
57% 89-68
50% 79-78
ATS
61% 94-60-1
56% 89-69
57% 89-67-1
49% 77-80
TTL
53% 80-70-5
52% 79-74-5
50% 76-75-6
45% 69-83-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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