Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Villarreal vs Betis Villarreal vs Betis

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

2-2-3  |  Home

1
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Estadio de la Cerámica

BETISBETIS

5-1-1  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
VILLARREAL
61%
DRAW
21%
BETIS
18%
▲ Edge: +26.10% (Real Betis)
52% Book Odds: -110
DRAW --
28% Book Odds: +260
Book Implied: 52.40% / % / 27.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 28%
Under 3.5 72%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
VILLARREAL
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Villarreal)
VillarrealVillarreal (-0.5) 0 BetisBetis (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

61.8% / 38.2%

Shots (On Goal)

14(8) / 26(12)

Corners

7 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Villarreal -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Villarreal)

Villarreal By 1 goal

26.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

36.9%

Real Betis By 1 goal

11.1%

Real Betis By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2
1
BETIS
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2
1
BETIS
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Villarreal Loss
46% Win Prob
B
Sim Villarreal Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Villarreal (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Villarreal (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim u3.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 Villarreal vs Betis 1 - 2
Jan 17, 2026 Betis vs Villarreal 2 - 0
Oct 18, 2025 Villarreal vs Betis 2 - 2
Apr 13, 2025 Betis vs Villarreal 1 - 2
Dec 15, 2024 Villarreal vs Betis 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Villarreal: 2.0 vs Betis: 0.0
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Betis: 4.0 vs Villarreal: 0.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Betis: 1.0 vs Villarreal: 3.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +57.1% more
Betis: 7.0 vs Villarreal: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Betis Score 1.0 2
Villarreal Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Villarreal (Home) vs Real Betis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Villarreal Share: 66.7% Real Betis Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Villarreal
Real Betis
Villarreal
Real Betis
ML
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
ATS
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
TTL
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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