Home / Premier League Projections Premier League / Nottm Forest vs Coventry Nottm Forest vs Coventry

NOTTM FORESTNOTTM FOREST

0-1-1  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:30 PM ET
The City Ground

COVENTRYCOVENTRY

0-0-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NOTTM FOREST
35%
DRAW
31%
COVENTRY
35%
▲ Edge: +33.50% (Coventry City)
61% Book Odds: -155
DRAW 25% Book Odds: +295
17% Book Odds: +505
Book Implied: 60.80% / 25.30% / 16.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 41%
Under 2.75 59%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
COVENTRY
Book Goal Line
+0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Coventry)
Nottm ForestNottm Forest (-0.8) 0 CoventryCoventry (+0.8)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

62.6% / 37.4%

Shots (On Goal)

24(3) / 10(3)

Corners

6 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Coventry City 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Coventry City)

Nottingham Forest By 1 goal

21.1%

Nottingham Forest By 2+ goals

15.9%

Coventry City By 1 goal

21.1%

Coventry City By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.80
1
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
NOTTM FOREST
Book Implied: 1.80
1
COVENTRY
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
41% Win Prob
C
Sim Nottingham Forest Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Coventry City (+0.75) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
B
Sim Nottingham Forest (-0.75) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Nottm Forest vs Coventry 0 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Coventry: 5.0 vs Nottm Forest: 4.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Nottm Forest: 2.0 vs Coventry: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Nottm Forest: 6.0 vs Coventry: 12.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Nottm Forest: 2.0 vs Coventry: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Coventry City Score 1.0 1
Nottingham Forest Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Nottingham Forest (Home) vs Coventry City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Nottingham Forest Share: 50.0% Coventry City Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Nottingham Forest
Coventry City
Nottingham Forest
Coventry City
ML
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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