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NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

2-2-3  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 10:00 AM ET
St. James' Park

HULLHULL

2-3-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
NEWCASTLE
61%
DRAW
21%
HULL
18%
▲ Edge: +23% (Hull City)
62% Book Odds: -160
DRAW 23% Book Odds: +335
18% Book Odds: +445
Book Implied: 61.50% / 23% / 18.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 41%
Under 3.0 59%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
HULL
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
NewcastleNewcastle (-1) 0 HullHull (+1)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

56.2% / 43.8%

Shots (On Goal)

12(5) / 21(4)

Corners

4 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Hull City +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Hull City)

Newcastle United By 1 goal

26.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

36.9%

Hull City By 1 goal

11.1%

Hull City By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 2
1
HULL
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 2
0
HULL
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Newcastle United Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Newcastle United Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hull City (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Hull City (+1) Push
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u3.0 Push
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Newcastle vs Hull 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Newcastle: 3.0 vs Hull: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +125.0% more
Newcastle: 9.0 vs Hull: 4.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Hull: 3.0 vs Newcastle: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Hull: 4.0 vs Newcastle: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Hull City Score 1.0 1
Newcastle United Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Newcastle United (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Newcastle United Share: 66.7% Hull City Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Newcastle United
Hull City
Newcastle United
Hull City
ML
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
ATS
36% 2-3-1
80% 4-1-2
18% 1-4-1
45% 2-3-1
TTL
46% 3-3
62% 4-2
33% 2-4-1
17% 1-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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