BRIGHTONBRIGHTON
1-0-1 | Home
3
ARSENALARSENAL
2-0-0 | Away
0
AI Model Win Probability
BRIGHTON
40%
DRAW
21%
ARSENAL
40%
▲ Edge: +31.30% (Brighton & Hove Albion)
19%
Book Odds: +435
DRAW
26%
Book Odds: +290
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75
80%
Under 2.75
20%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
BRIGHTON
Book Goal Line
+0.75
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Brighton)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
40.2% / 59.8%
Shots (On Goal)
17(5) / 11(2)
Corners
5 / 6
Cards (Y/R)
4/0 - 1/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Brighton & Hove Albion 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Brighton & Hove Albion By 1 goal
21.1%
Brighton & Hove Albion By 2+ goals
15.9%
Arsenal By 1 goal
21.1%
Arsenal By 2+ goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Brighton
2
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1
Arsenal
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
Brighton
1
BRIGHTON
Book Implied: 1
Arsenal
2
ARSENAL
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Draw
Loss
42% Win Prob
C
Sim
Arsenal
Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brighton & Hove Albion (+0.75)
Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
A
Sim
Arsenal (-0.75)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o2.75
Proj Total: 4.0
A
Sim
o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 19, 2026
Brighton vs Arsenal
3 - 0
Mar 4, 2026
Brighton vs Arsenal
0 - 1
Dec 27, 2025
Arsenal vs Brighton
2 - 1
Jan 4, 2025
Brighton vs Arsenal
1 - 1
Aug 31, 2024
Arsenal vs Brighton
1 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5)
+133.3% more
Arsenal: 3.0
vs
Brighton: 7.0
Losses (L5)
+100.0% more
Arsenal: 0.0
vs
Brighton: 1.0
Wins (L5)
+66.7% more
Arsenal: 5.0
vs
Brighton: 3.0
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Brighton: 1.0
vs
Arsenal: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Arsenal Score
2.0
0
Brighton & Hove Albion Score
2.0
3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Brighton & Hove Albion (Home)
vs
Arsenal (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brighton & Hove Albion
Arsenal
Brighton & Hove Albion
Arsenal
ML
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
ATS
40%
2-3
25%
1-3-1
60%
3-2
71%
2-1-1
TTL
56%
2-2
40%
1-1-2
56%
2-2
60%
1-1-2