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SPURSSPURS

0-0-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:30 AM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

ASTON VILLAASTON VILLA

0-0-2  |  Away

3
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
61%
DRAW
21%
ASTON VILLA
18%
▲ Edge: +26.10% (Aston Villa)
53% Book Odds: -114
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +286
24% Book Odds: +320
Book Implied: 53.30% / 25.90% / 23.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
Over 3.0 47%
Under 3.0 53%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SPURS
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Spurs)
SpursSpurs (-0.5) 0 Aston VillaAston Villa (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

63.8% / 36.2%

Shots (On Goal)

20(7) / 15(6)

Corners

11 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tottenham Hotspur -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tottenham Hotspur)

Tottenham Hotspur By 1 goal

26.1%

Tottenham Hotspur By 2+ goals

36.9%

Aston Villa By 1 goal

11.1%

Aston Villa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.80
1
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
0
SPURS
Book Implied: 1.80
2
ASTON VILLA
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tottenham Hotspur Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Sim Aston Villa Win
81% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tottenham Hotspur (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Aston Villa (+0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 Spurs vs Aston Villa 2 - 3
Oct 19, 2025 Spurs vs Aston Villa 1 - 2
May 16, 2025 Aston Villa vs Spurs 2 - 0
Nov 3, 2024 Spurs vs Aston Villa 4 - 1
Mar 10, 2024 Aston Villa vs Spurs 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Spurs: 2.0 vs Aston Villa: 1.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Aston Villa: 2.0 vs Spurs: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
Aston Villa: 7.0 vs Spurs: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Aston Villa Score 1.0 3
Tottenham Hotspur Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Tottenham Hotspur (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tottenham Hotspur Share: 66.7% Aston Villa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tottenham Hotspur
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
Aston Villa
ML
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
ATS
75% 3-1-1
100% 4-0-1
25% 1-3-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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