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BRENTFORDBRENTFORD

1-1-0  |  Home

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 3:00 PM ET
Gtech Community Stadium

CHELSEACHELSEA

2-0-0  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
BRENTFORD
61%
DRAW
21%
CHELSEA
18%
▲ Edge: +8.90% (Chelsea)
39% Book Odds: +157
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +265
37% Book Odds: +174
Book Implied: 38.90% / 27.40% / 36.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 42%
Under 3.25 58%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
BRENTFORD
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Brentford)
BrentfordBrentford (0) 0 ChelseaChelsea (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

40.6% / 59.4%

Shots (On Goal)

13(6) / 12(2)

Corners

4 / 12

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Brentford -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Brentford)

Brentford By 1 goal

26.1%

Brentford By 2+ goals

36.9%

Chelsea By 1 goal

11.1%

Chelsea By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.60
1
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.60
Simulated Score
1
BRENTFORD
Book Implied: 1.60
2
CHELSEA
Book Implied: 1.60
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brentford Win
55% Win Prob
B
Sim Chelsea Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Brentford (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Sim Chelsea (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.3
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 18, 2026 Brentford vs Chelsea 3 - 0
Jan 17, 2026 Chelsea vs Brentford 2 - 0
Sep 13, 2025 Brentford vs Chelsea 2 - 2
Apr 6, 2025 Brentford vs Chelsea 0 - 0
Dec 15, 2024 Chelsea vs Brentford 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Brentford: 3.0 vs Chelsea: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Brentford: 0.0 vs Chelsea: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +66.7% more
Brentford: 6.0 vs Chelsea: 10.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Chelsea: 3.0 vs Brentford: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Chelsea Score 1.0 0
Brentford Score 2.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Brentford (Home) vs Chelsea (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Brentford Share: 66.7% Chelsea Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Brentford
Chelsea
Brentford
Chelsea
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
ATS
71% 2-1-1
20% 1-4
14% 0-3-1
78% 3-1
TTL
56% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
78% 3-1
75% 3-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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