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LEEDSLEEDS

1-1-0  |  Home

4
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Elland Road

NEWCASTLENEWCASTLE

1-1-0  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
LEEDS
61%
DRAW
21%
NEWCASTLE
18%
▲ Edge: +21.80% (Newcastle United)
42% Book Odds: +141
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +250
33% Book Odds: +205
Book Implied: 41.50% / 28.60% / 32.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 53%
Under 2.75 47%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
LEEDS
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Leeds)
LeedsLeeds (-0.2) 0 NewcastleNewcastle (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

50.6% / 49.4%

Shots (On Goal)

15(6) / 7(5)

Corners

5 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Leeds United -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Leeds United)

Leeds United By 1 goal

26.1%

Leeds United By 2+ goals

36.9%

Newcastle United By 1 goal

11.1%

Newcastle United By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
LEEDS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
NEWCASTLE
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Leeds United Win
45% Win Prob
C
Sim Leeds United Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leeds United (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Leeds United (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 Leeds vs Newcastle 4 - 1
Jan 7, 2026 Newcastle vs Leeds 4 - 3
Aug 30, 2025 Leeds vs Newcastle 0 - 0
May 13, 2023 Leeds vs Newcastle 2 - 2
Dec 31, 2022 Newcastle vs Leeds 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Newcastle: 0.0 vs Leeds: 1.0
Wins (L5) +50.0% more
Newcastle: 3.0 vs Leeds: 2.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Newcastle: 6.0 vs Leeds: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Newcastle: 10.0 vs Leeds: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Newcastle United Score 1.0 1
Leeds United Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Leeds United (Home) vs Newcastle United (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Leeds United Share: 66.7% Newcastle United Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Leeds United
Newcastle United
Leeds United
Newcastle United
ML
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
ATS
0% 0-4-1
29% 1-2-1
25% 1-3-1
29% 1-2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
67% 3-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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