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MAN UNITEDMAN UNITED

1-0-1  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 11:30 AM ET
Old Trafford

MAN CITYMAN CITY

2-0-0  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
MAN UNITED
18%
DRAW
21%
MAN CITY
61%
▲ Edge: +15% (Manchester City)
33% Book Odds: +200
DRAW 26% Book Odds: +286
44% Book Odds: +129
Book Implied: 33.30% / 25.90% / 43.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 49%
Under 3.25 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
MAN CITY
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Man City)
Man UnitedMan United (+0.2) 0 Man CityMan City (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.7% / 45.3%

Shots (On Goal)

16(3) / 6(2)

Corners

6 / 7

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Manchester City -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Manchester City)

Manchester United By 1 goal

11.1%

Manchester United By 2+ goals

4.8%

Manchester City By 1 goal

26.1%

Manchester City By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 1.50
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 1.80
Simulated Score
1
MAN UNITED
Book Implied: 1.50
2
MAN CITY
Book Implied: 1.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Manchester City Win
59% Win Prob
B
Sim Manchester City Win
62% Win Prob
B
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Manchester City (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Sim Manchester City (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim u3.3 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 Man United vs Man City 0 - 1
Jan 17, 2026 Man United vs Man City 2 - 0
Sep 14, 2025 Man City vs Man United 3 - 0
Apr 6, 2025 Man United vs Man City 0 - 0
Dec 15, 2024 Man City vs Man United 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +100.0% more
Man City: 5.0 vs Man United: 10.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Man City: 4.0 vs Man United: 2.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Man City: 1.0 vs Man United: 2.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Man United: 1.0 vs Man City: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Manchester City Score 2.0 1
Manchester United Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Manchester United (Home) vs Manchester City (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Manchester United Share: 33.3% Manchester City Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Manchester United
Manchester City
Manchester United
Manchester City
ML
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
75% 3-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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